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September 29th MLB news ... Thanks for stopping by Gambling on baseball online, the place that provides everything a bettor needs to score a profit on baseball.
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What would Stantons $325 million deal mean for Harper?
Im more into 12-year deals for young players, he said that afternoon, perfectly straight-faced.
Boras never mentioned any one player by name, but the insinuation was obvious. He was talking about Bryce Harper, and doing so in contract terms never before realized by any professional baseball player.
Never realized, that is, until right now. The Miami Marlins appear on the verge of a 13-year, $325 million contract extension with Giancarlo Stanton. And if the thought of that many years and that much money guaranteed to one player doesnt blow your mind, consider what this development might mean for the Washington Nationals and their own young, star outfielder.
Yes, if youve ever wondered what it might cost to keep Harper in a curly W cap for the rest of his career, you just got a pretty good idea.
Stanton may not be the perfect comparison for Harper, but hes as close as anybody else in the game at this moment. Indeed, look at what Harper has done in his first three big-league seasons vs. what Stanton did in his first three years with the Marlins, and there are some striking similarities.
Stantons batting average through three seasons (ages 20-22): .270. His on-base percentage: .350.
Harpers batting average through three seasons (ages 19-21): .272. His on-base percentage: .351.
Stanton did hit for considerably more power than Harper, out-homering him 93 to 55 and out-slugging him .553 to .465. But weve certainly seen Harpers massive power potential on display, and consensus opinion is that hell continue to develop into one of the best power hitters in the game, right alongside Stanton.
Combine that with Harpers young age hes slated to become eligible for free agency in November 2018, right after he turns 26 and its not hard to figure out what kind of contract terms he could be looking at in the not-so-distant future.
Much of the focus on the Nationals so far this offseason has been on the dilemma they face trying to lock up any or all of their key players who will be free agents one year from now: Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister.
But it needs to be pointed out plenty more key players will be approaching free agency shortly after those three. Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Wilson Ramos are eligible after the 2016 season. Harper will be eligible after the 2018 season. Anthony Rendon will follow after the 2019 season.
Thats a long way off, but those days will arrive before you know it. Or, more specifically, the day in which long-term extension talks begin to come up will arrive much before you know it.
The Nationals are in no hurry to secure Harpers career-long employment just yet. They need to see him continue to develop and keep himself healthy and on the field before they can reasonably commit to him for the long haul.
But when that day comes, be prepared to hear Stantons soon-to-be-announced deal brought up for comparison. And as much as your mind was blown upon first hearing the words 13-year, $325 million contract over the weekend, imagine your reaction when you first hear the numbers likely to be attached to Bryce Harpers name a couple of winters from now.
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MLB: Record pace of MLB Totals less than 7 runs
In handicapping the MLB action last week, it occurred to meÖthere are a lot more games with posted totals of less than 7 runs nowadays than Iíve ever picked up on before. If youíve been active this baseball season, you know that scoring is down overall, but is the frequency of the real low totaled games in proportion, or an overreaction by oddsmakers? Either way, are there any specific trends or betting systems that we can take advantage of when analyzing these games? Letís take a look.
To start off with, Iím pleased to say that my hunch was correctÖAND HOW! So far this season, in games played through Monday, August 2nd, there have been 65 such games with totals posted at 6 or 6.5. Over the course of the prior five seasons combined, there were only 57 games meeting that low total criteria. I would categorize this as an unusual phenomena.
So why are the totals so low? To me, the answer is several-fold. For one,as mentioned before, scoring and home run hitting are down all across baseball. Also, right now, there are 11 different regular starting pitchers that boast a WHIP of 1.100 or less. Last season there were only seven, and in 2008, there were just five. In other words, there are a lot more ďacesĒ around this season to slow opposing lineups. Thirdly, the Padres pitching staff has been dominant in itself, and this yearís list of 65 games with totals of 7 or less includes 25 games at Petco park, home of the Padres. Finally, I believe bettors have forced the hand of oddsmakers to drop their totals more often than they have wanted to. In fact, in 22 of the 65 games, the posted opening total was 7 runs or higher, and dropped below that threshold only after bettors forced oddsmakers to make a bold move downward.
So, now that we have an understanding of how many games are meeting our low total criteria, is there anything specific we can lean on to gain an advantage against the oddsmakers when it comes to betting these totals? Take a look at some of these trends/systems:
ē Of the 57 games between 2005-2009 with closing totals of 6 or 6.5, 29 went UNDER and 28 went OVER.
ē Of the 65 games this season with totals of less than 7 runs, 36 have gone OVER the total, while 27 have gone UNDER, with two pushes. That means the OVER has won at a rate of 57% on hese games in 2010.
ē The average score of these low totaled games in 2010 has been HOME TEAM 4.1, ROAD TEAM 3.4, with the 7.5 combined runs surpassing the average posted number by more than one run per game.
ē Interleague play was a boon for bettors playing the OVER, as that side of these low totaled games converted on 10 of 13 opportunities, for 77%.
ē Of the 51 remaining games qualifying this season that were not Interleague, only six were American League games. The results on those were split, three OVERís, three UNDERís. The N.L. games were 23 OVERís, 21 UNDERís, one push.
ē Of the 65 games in 2010 with closing totals of less than 7 runs, 15 were day games and the results were six OVERís, seven UNDERís, two pushes. Thus, on night games, the OVERís were much more prevalent, with a record of 30-20, for 60%.
ē Interestingly, in the five seasons prior to 2010, not one of our low totaled games have come during the playoffs, when pitching is supposedly at its best.
In terms of ballparks, here are the total records in 2010, noted Over-Under-Push (Over %)
ANGEL STADIUM OF ANAHEIM (Angels): 0-1-0 (0%)
AT&T PARK (Giants): 3-6-0 (33%)
BUSCH STADIUM (Cardinals): 1-0-0 (100%)
CITI FIELD (NY Mets): 1-1-0 (50%)
CITIZENS BANK PARK (Phillies): 0-1-0 (0%)
DODGER STADIUM (Dodgers): 4-2-0 (67%)
MINUTE MAID PARK (Astros): 2-2-0 (50%)
NATIONALS PARK (Nationals): 2-0-0 (100%)
PETCO PARK (Padres): 16-7-2 (70%)
SAFECO FIELD (Mariners): 4-3-0 (57%)
SUN LIFE STADIUM (Marlins): 0-1-0 (0%)
TROPICANA FIELD (Rays): 0-1-0 (0%)
TURNER FIELD (Braves): 0-2-0 (0%)
U.S. CELLULAR FIELD (White Sox): 1-0-0 (100%)
WRIGLEY FIELD (Cubs): 2-0-0 (100%)
Of course, the most interesting trend on that list finds 70% of games at Petco Park with totals of less than 7 runs going OVER. It seems you canít discount the fact that San Diego is still a first place team and capable of scoring runs itself. In fact, in those 25 games, the Padres averaged 4.9 runs per game themselves. Furthermore, in the games the Padres played on the road with totals of 6 or 6.5, they are 2-1 OVER. One of the things to watch for moving forward is whether or not the frequency of San Diego games meeting our low total criteria declines, since the additions of Ryan Ludwick & Miguel Tejada to the Padresí lineup should result in increased run production.
The bottom line of all the analysis is this: Donít judge a book by its cover when it comes to low totaled games. The pitching may look dominant, or the ball park imposing on the hitters, but seven runs is not a heck of a lot to generate in a baseball game. In fact, when you consider that both teams just have to produce three runs each to force these games over (since their canít be a 3-3 tie), the chances for OVERís are even greater. Like anything else, oddsmakers are counting on bettors to side with the more common information, and in most cases, all signs are pointing to low scoring games. Naturally, thatís when the opposite occurs, and bookmakers rake in the profits.
MLB: Aces collide in Phillies-Yankees matchup
The three-game series between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies was always going to be intriguing. The pitching matchup in Tuesday night's opener at Yankee Stadium makes it even more so. Both teams will have their aces on the mound in this rematch of last year's World Series when the Yankees turn to CC Sabathia and the Phillies counter with a pitcher very familiar to New York in Roy Halladay. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have installed the hosts as -130 favorites, marking only the second time in 22 starts that Halladay will pitch as an underdog.
The Yankees (40-23) ended a nine-year championship drought by beating the defending champion Phillies (32-29) in six games last year. New York prevailed despite being outhomered 11-6, with Chase Utley hitting five homers for Philadelphia.
Both teams made some key changes, with New York choosing not to re-sign World Series MVP Hideki Matsui and outfielder Johnny Damon. The biggest move was made by Philadelphia, which dealt Cliff Lee and acquired Halladay (8-4, 1.96 ERA) in a four-team deal in the offseason.
Halladay has been outstanding, pitching a major league-leading five complete games. He's dominated the Yankees, going 18-6 with a 2.81 ERA in 35 starts, including 8-1 with a 2.42 ERA in his last 10.
In his career, HALLADAY is 63-41 (+22.5 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125. The average score was HALLADAY 5.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*).
However, this is an interesting contradictory angle from FoxSheets:
ē HALLADAY is 0-6 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was HALLADAY 2.2, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)
Sabathia is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA in six career outings against the Phillies, including three in the postseason. His ERA in 2010 is a pedestrian 4.01 and he has given up 10 runs in 20 innings in his last three starts. The left-hander's last four victories have come against Baltimore, which he's beaten in each of his last two starts. He gave up two runs over seven innings in a 4-2 road win Wednesday.
This will mark the third time that Halladay and Sabathia (6-3, 4.01) have met. They split the first two meetings, with Halladay posting a 3.29 ERA and Sabathia a 3.07 ERA.
New York has won eight straight at home to move into a first-place tie atop the AL East with Tampa Bay.
It's been a different story for the two-time defending NL champions, who find themselves in third place in their division as losers of 14 of 20. The Phillies are last in the majors with 48 runs scored since May 22.
The Yankees will receive a boost if Alex Rodriguez returns after missing all three games against the Astros with a sore right hip. Girardi believes Rodriguez may play Tuesday.
The StatFox Power Line shows the Yankees at -131, almost identical to the actual price at Sportsbook.com, meaning there should be somewhat balanced action coming in on each team.